Past modal: "can't have" or "couldn't have"?

[Can]

Hi All!

May someone tell, if there is any difference between these two sentences:

(1) Peter wasn't there then, so he can't have broken your vase.

and

(2) Peter wasn't there then, so he couldn't have broken your vase.

Is the one with "can't have" even correct?

Thank you!

[Mister Micawber]

.
The expected form is #2, but #1 is possible if the speaker is thinking of the vase still lying broken and Peter's current responsibility for the accident. Use #2 in careful writing.
.
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Canadian-American native speaker
who teaches English for a living at Mister Micawber's
ESL cafe: Interview with Mister Micawber

[Can]

All right! Thanks a lot!

[Sheker9]

yeah, i think both possibilities are correct but you tend to hear more the second one
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