GRE®®Argument 25

[Csdlw]

The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."

In this memo, the mayor concludes that building a golf course and resort hotel is the best way to stimulate Hopewell's economy and increase the tax revenues, just as the town of Ocean View did two years ago. To support the conclusion, the mayor offers a series of current economic situation in Ocean View during the two years. However, close security reveals that the memo contains some flaws and is not convincing.

First of all, the mayor unfairly assumes that the recent economic developments in Ocean View are the result of building the golf course and resort hotel, rather than other phenomenon. The reason of the causal relationship is the latter occurred before the former. The mayor fails to consider some other possible factors for the recent developments. Perhaps, the tourists visited the town of Ocean View because there are beautiful landscapes and comfortable climate. Or perhaps, the convenient transportation in the town and some financial inducements offered by the council of the town attracted these businesses to open. Also, the increase of tax revenues may result from the higher tax rates. Without ruling out such factors, the mayor cannot convince me that building the golf course and resort hotel is mainly responsible for the developments in the town during the two years.

Secondly, even if building the golf course and resort hotel causes the developments, the mayor fails to assure me that such trends will continue in Ocean View. The mayor overlooks some possibilities that can change the current situation. For example, its neighboring towns are going to build the golf courses and resort hotels which may be cheaper than its but offer better services, and attract more people, and then the profit will decrease with more competition. For that matter, in the future, the tourists lose interest in such golf courses and resort hotels and visit other more intriguing places. Unless verifying that these possibilities are unlikely, the mayor cannot confidently infer that the economy will be improved by establishing the golf course and resort hotel in the future.

Thirdly, another problem with the argument is that the mayor concludes too hastily that building the golf course and resort hotel can have the same effect in Hopewell, and ignores the differences between the two towns that may help to bring about a different result in Hopewell. For instance, there is no land that has suitable terrain and area in Hopewell for a golf course. Or perhaps, the transportation is poor in Hopewell, and few merchants and tourists are willing to go to the town to do business or visit. Without thinking about these possible dissimilarities, the mayor cannot justifiably conclude that building the golf course is helpful to the economy of the town of Hopewell.

Finally, granted that establishing a golf course and resort hotel is a good way for Hopewell, the mayor fails to account for other solutions to improve the economy. There may be many other methods, such as improving the condition of roads in Hopewell, and offering attractive financial subsidy for the residents to open businesses. Without being compared with these solutions, I cannot accept that building a golf course and resort hotel is the best and perfect.

In sum, the mayor's recommendation is not well supported. To convince me, the mayor needs to provide more strong and clear evidences to demonstrate that the economic trends in Ocean View is mainly due to the construction of the golf course and resort hotel and continue in the future. To better evaluate the recommendation, I need to know the similarity of these two towns and the result of compare between the recommended way and other solutions.

[Kitosdad]

The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."

In this memo, the mayor concludes that building a golf course and resort hotel is the best way to stimulate Hopewell's economy and increase the tax revenues, just as the town of Ocean View did two years ago. To support the conclusion, the mayor offers a series of current economic situationS in Ocean View during the two years. However, close security reveals that the memo contains some flaws and is not convincing.

First of all, the mayor unfairly assumes that the recent economic developments in Ocean View are the result of building the golf course and resort hotel, rather than other phenomenon. The reason of the causal relationship is the latter occurred before the former. The mayor fails to consider some other possible factors for the recent developments. Perhaps, the tourists visited the town of Ocean View because there are beautiful landscapes and A comfortable climate. Or perhaps, the convenient transportation in the town and some financial inducements offered by the council of the town attracted these businesses to open. Also, the increase of tax revenues may result from the higher tax rates. Without ruling out such factors, the mayor cannot convince me that building the golf course and resort hotel is mainly responsible for the developments in the town during the two years.

Secondly, even if building the golf course and resort hotel causes the developments, the mayor fails to assure me that such trends will continue in Ocean View. The mayor overlooks some possibilities that can change the current situation. For example, its neighboring towns are going to build the golf courses and resort hotels which may be cheaper than its but offer better services, and attract more people, and then the profit will decrease with more competition. For that matter, in the future, the tourists lose interest in such golf courses and resort hotels and visit other more intriguing places. Unless verifying that these possibilities are unlikely, the mayor cannot confidently infer that the economy will be improved by establishing the golf course and resort hotel in the future.

Thirdly, another problem with the argument is that the mayor concludes too hastily that building the golf course and resort hotel can have the same effect in Hopewell, and ignores the differences between the two towns that may help to bring about a different result in Hopewell. For instance, there is no land that has suitable terrain and area in Hopewell for a golf course. Or perhaps, the transportation is poor in Hopewell, and few merchants and tourists are willing to go to the town to do business or visit. Without thinking about these possible dissimilarities, the mayor cannot justifiably conclude that building the golf course is helpful to the economy of the town of Hopewell.

Finally, granted that establishing a golf course and resort hotel is a good way for Hopewell, the mayor fails to account for other solutions to improve the economy. There may be many other methods, such as improving the condition of roads in Hopewell, and offering attractive financial subsidy for the residents to open businesses. Without being compared with these solutions, I cannot accept that building a golf course and resort hotel is the best and perfect SOLUTION TO OUR PROBLEMS.

In sum, the mayor's recommendation is not well supported. To convince me, the mayor needs to provide more strong and clear evidences to demonstrate that the economic trends in Ocean View is mainly due to the construction of the golf course and resort hotel. and continue in the future. To better evaluate the recommendation, I need to know the similarity of these two towns and the result of comparISONS between the recommended way and other solutions.
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Really good work Csdlw.

Kitos. 9/10
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Keep it simple ... Keep it interesting.

[Csdlw]

Thanks, :)