Argument 76 and 10

[Yoephin]

76.The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty magazine.



"A group of volunteers participated in a study of consumer responses to the new Luxess face cream. Every morning for a month, they washed their faces with mild soap and then applied Luxess. At the end of that month, most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt. Thus it appears that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin."

This argument seems logical at first glance, but it still contains several flaws. By providing the facts that a study shows that most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt after a month of the use of Luxess. As far as I concern, the author's conclustion that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin.

First, the acutal number of volunteers is not clear so that it cannot represented as a convincing evidence. It is possible that there are only 2 or 4 volunteers who participated in this study. Obviously, the small amount of test taker won't be able to delegate most cunsumers that use Luxess. In large degree, only these volunteers found that Luxess benefits the condition of facial skin while other customers do not think Luxess makes any differences.

Second, a month is not a sufficient time to judge that Luxess is good for facial skin. Maybe in this month, consumers' facial condition is well-accepted and positive. But no one can predict what the situation about to be, will the condition continue getting better or worse. There are no evidence to prove that after months, the agreeable facial skin condition will remain the same as the result in this month.

Third, the author overlooks the possibility that it is the mild soap actually improve the quality of the customers' facial skin rather than Luxess. Without the help of the mild soap, the result might be a different one that Luxess ruins consumers' faces instead of making them more smooth or good looking.

Finally, in asserting that the Luxess is advicible option for customers, the author fails to realize other production of face cream that might be more effective than Luxess. Consequently, with the lack of comparison between Luxess and other brands thar produce face cream. It is unfair to infer that Luxess is superior to other productions, for example, the mild soap.

In sum, the author cannot convince me that the conclusion about the Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin. The argument can be more persuasive if the author provide the statistics about how the consomers' feeling without the effect of mild soap or any other factors. What's more, a longer period of the study might improve the result such as one year of the experiment time or longer.

10.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.



"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."

In this argument, the author recommends that to prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia should begin to regulate retail milk prices. And he also claims that such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and adequate supply of milk for consumers. To support this conclusion, the author provides the evidences that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago and the price of milk has increased from $ 1.50 to over $ 3.00 per gallon in Excello. I find several unpersuasive respects in this Argument.

First, the author cites the statistics that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago; it is unfair to conclude that this situation applies equally to Batavia or precisely predicts the developmental trend in Batavia in the future. For example, the number of dairy farms in Batavia might decrease sharply rather than greater than it was ten years ago; moreover, farmers might encounter some serious financial problems that lead to a bankrupt so that they would be unable to maintain their dairy farms to support the supply of milk. The author fails to assure me that the number of dairy farms is now greater than it was 10 years ago as well as the entire country without ruling out all these possibilities.

Second, the author hastily assumes that the increase of the number of dairy farms is the cause of an apparently increased supply of milk; however, the author overlooks all other possible explanations. For instance, to enlarge the scales and number of the dairy farm is on the purpose of developing other kind of products while the supply of milk processes only a small part of it; furthermore, it probably is the declination of the milk products drives farmers to fortify the amount of dairy farms. Without considering these possible explanations, the author's conclusion about there is an apparently increased supply of milk is still remain unconvincing.

Third, the author observes the correlation between the price of milk has increased from $1.50 to over $ 3.00 per gallon and farmers continue to receive excessive profits, then the author cursively draw the conclusion that the former is the cause of the latter; however, the author fails to rule out other possible explanations for the rise in profits among farmers. For example, a declination of milk supply which might lead to a increase in price according to the law of marketing economy, in a considerable degree, will diminish the profits seriously than the farmer expected; What's more consumers' changing flavors also consist a big affection to milk markets: they desire on more milk production. So, the author cannot assure me that farmers will continuing(continue) to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk if all other possible factors are not presented.

Finally, in asserting that such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and adequate supply of milk for consumers, obviously, the author ignores the negative effect this regulation might bring to Excello. Takes milk as example, the quality of it cannot be granteed any more because farmers might mix other source of milk which in a much lower price or even water. Without ruling out these possibilities, the author cannot convince me that the price regulation is the best choice.

To sum up, the author's conclusion about a regulation to retail milk prices is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers is not well supported as it stands. To bolster it, the author must provide more evidence, such as the accurate number of dairy farms in the past ten years and the amount of milk production in Batavia. To better assess the problem, I would also need to know how well consumers are willing to purchase milk in Excello Market.

[Kitosdad]

[Yoephin]

Appreciate it! Thanks for your advice. It really helps.