ARG:39The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College

[Victoria Leong]

39The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College.
"Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni."

In a memorandum, the conclusion of author is that promoting long-distance degree programs like those at Omni is the best way to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budge deficits at Humana College. The conclusion is supported by a series of evidences author provided. First, instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections, which significantly enable the Omni University to decrease expenditures more than prior years. Second, the long-distance degree gains a warm welcome among the student and then attracts more students to enroll in this degree. After careful thinking over again, however, I found some controversies lying in the argument, which render it unpersuasive.

The first problem with the argument is that the reliability of survey about the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University is open to doubt. Although the author provides a concrete amount about the number of student have increased, it can prove nothing about the conclusion. Because the author fails to provide the figure of how many students have enrolled in the prior years. It is entirely possible that only 100 students have enrolled in this program in the previous years, and this year the number of students have increased by 50%, which means the number of student from 100 increased to 150, which is a tiny portion of people in the college. Therefore, in order to support the conclusion, the author must provide the detail figure of the number of student.

Another problem of argument is that the author assumes a significant decrease in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space at Omni University was caused by the instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. However, no evidence to support positive correlation between the expenditures of decreasing at Omni University and instruction in the long-distance programs establish causality. It might be that Omni University is susceptible to the amount of students declining in the past several years, which helps the Omni University to save a large volume of expenditure. Also, I cannot rule out the possibility that the quality of dormitory and classroom space at Omni University is better than the Humana University’s. So, if the author cannot provide some casual explanations to clear up the possibility I mentioned above, I cannot give any credit to the author’s conclusion.

Finally, it is highly doubtful that strategies drawn from Omni University are applicable to Humana University. However, differences between these two clearly outweigh the similarities, therefore making the analogy much less valid. For example, the location of Omni University is the suburban areas of a town, which can benefit from the long-term distance. In contrary, the Humana University located at the center of town, which is a convenient location to the student with a strong transportation system to get in. since the author fails to afford the shared characteristics between Omni University and Humana University, the conclusion of statement become untenable.

In conclusion, this argument is unacceptable as it stands. To better evaluate the argument, I would need detailed information about the two surveys to determine whether the students were representative of the Omni University’s students. I would also need to know more information about the casual relationship between the reduction expenditure of Omni University and the long-distance programs. To strength the argument, the author also cannot miss show the same characteristic shared by these two universities, which assist us to predict the Omni University’s positive result to happen in the Humana University.

Thanks YOU!

[Kitosdad]

39The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College.
"Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni."

In a memorandum, the conclusion of author is that promoting long-distance degree programs like those at Omni is the best way to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budge deficits at Humana College. The conclusion is supported by a series of evidences provided by the author.

First, instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections, which significantly enables the Omni University to decrease expenditures more than in prior years.
Second, the long-distance degree gains a warm welcome among the students, which then attracts more students to enrol in this degree. However, after carefully thinking it over again, I found some controversies present in the argument, which render it unpersuasive.

The first problem with the argument is that the reliability of the survey about the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University is open to doubt. Although the author provides a concrete figure to prove the number of students have increased, it can prove nothing about the conclusion, because the author fails to provide the figure of how many students enrolled in prior years. It is entirely possible that only 100 students enrolled in this program in previous years, and this year the number of students have increased by 50%, which means the number of student from 100 increased to 150, which is a tiny portion of people in the college. Therefore, in order to support the conclusion, the author must provide the detailed figures of the number of students.

Another weakness in the argument is that the author assumes that the significant decrease in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space at Omni University was caused by the instruction in the long-distance programs, which take place via interactive video computer connections. However, no evidence to support this positive correlation between the expenditures of decreasing student numbers at Omni University, and instruction in the long-distance programs establish causality. It might be that Omni University is susceptible to the amount of students declining in the past several years, which helps the Omni University to save a large volume of expenditure. Also, I cannot rule out the possibility that the quality of dormitory and classroom space at Omni University is better than that at the Humana University’s. So, if the author cannot provide some concrete explanations to clear up the possibility I mentioned above, I cannot give any credit to the author’s conclusion.

Finally, it is highly doubtful that strategies drawn from Omni University are applicable to Humana University. However, differences between these two clearly outweigh the similarities, therefore making the analogy much less valid. For example, the location of Omni University is in the suburban areas of a town, which can benefit from the long-term distance. On the contrary, the Humana University located at the centre of a town, which is a convenient location for the student with a transportation problem to get in. Since the author fails to afford the shared characteristics between Omni University and Humana University, the conclusion statement become untenable.

In conclusion, this argument is unacceptable as it stands. To better evaluate the argument, I would need detailed information about the two surveys to determine whether the students were representative of the Omni University’s students. I would also need to know more information about the casual relationship between the reduction expenditure of Omni University and the long-distance programs. To strength the argument, the author also cannot miss showing the same characteristic shared by these two universities, which assist us to predict the Omni University’s positive results will also happen in the Humana University.
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You worked hard with this one Victoria, but there were many omissions. However, you gave a good account of yourself.

Kitos. 8/10
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Keep it simple ... Keep it interesting.