argument: oil demand increase

[Bestwayyy]

Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.

The author of the argument concludes that Consolidated Industries should be developed and more budget need to be allocated to this industry because the temperature of next years is forecasted to be low and more people need oil to warm their house; however, this conclusion cannot be accepted as it is because it depends on a number of assumptions all of which can be challenged in one way or another.
The first problem with the argument is that the author assumes that the temperature of next years will definitely decrease because of the experience of the last year and the prediction of weather forecasters. However, there is no evidence to definitely prove that. As you know, in forecasting weather always there are uncertainties and maybe next year could be an exception in a sequence. Or maybe some special global weather effects prompt the forecasters to predict that next year will be cold and there would be a harsh condition, while the forecasters are misleaded by not accurate and real data of that special year and its weather information.
The second problem with the argument is that the author states that new homes have been built and this cause for more need of energy. However, there is no evidence to prove that this development will continue to next years. Perhaps the local government’s finances will be diminished next years because of some external problems that the federal government is faced. As result, the government will halt the process of building new houses and the demand for energy in next years will be constant and will not experience profound changes.
Another problem with the argument is that the author contends that there would be an increased demand for heating oil. However, this could not be true because of some other alternative energy sources. Maybe the people of the region are inclined to equip their house with solar cell panels and they consume energy through using this technology. Or maybe companies will decrease their price to compete with each other and they introduce new source of energy like disel generators in order to produce electricity and warm the houses. As result the demand for other kinds of energy will increase next years instead of oil.
In the final analysis, the writer’s conclusion cannot be taken to be correct because, as it was shown in the body paragraphs above, it depends on a number of premises each of which is questionable. The conclusion can only be accepted if the weaknesses already referred to are all removed.

[Luschen]

Hi Bestwayyy, I am sorry I am so late in responding to this. I rarely check the GRE forum, so this essay has been languishing quite awhile. Next time, please message me asking me to check it. Let me know if it is too late or if I should check your other essay too.

Your writing is pretty good, but I think your reasons could be better. What you have is ok, but you missed some points. There were only 20 days with below average temperatures - is that for the whole year? If so, the vast majority of days, 345, were average or above average temperatures. And maybe the 20 below average days were in the summer, when heating is not necessary even if the temperature is cooler than normal. Even if they meant 20 days in the winter, that still means that most of the days were average or above average temperature.

Your last paragraph approaches the issue, but the main point is that new houses very rarely are equipped with oil furnaces these days. Most houses have electric or natural gas furnaces. So no matter how much more new development there is, the demand for heating oil is unlikely to increase.

And finally, if demand for heating oil is set to increase, what advantage will Consolidated have over its competitors? Does Consolidated even serve the northeastern market? Maybe other companies are better positioned to benefit from the increased demand.